Skeptic Project

http://www.amazon.com/Thirteen-Keys-Presidency-Allan-Lichtman/dp/0819187518/</p>

This was a predictive system developed in the 1980s by a historian and a political scientist. It boils down to 13 factors which, when tallied, will tell you whether the White House will change parties in an upcoming presidential election. Because only 2 of the 13 actually depend on the candidates who are running--and you can usually tell way in advance if these 2 factors are in play--this system can be used to predict elections years in advance without even knowing who the final nominee will be.

While they were writing it they used the system to predict the 1984 election (which wasn't hard) and 1988 (which was--people forget that the Democrats were heavily favored to win about 2 years out). They also applied it retroactively to all campaigns since 1860 and were wrong only twice: 1876 and 1888, when the electoral vote count went against popular vote. (They were also wrong in 2000 when the keys predicted a Gore victory, but that was the same deal).

I plan to do a blog on this, just to be contrarian after tonight's talking heads jizz over how "difficult" Obama's presidency will be after today. In the blog I'll explain all the keys and how they work. But in the meantime I just did the analysis for likely 2012 conditions, and I wouldn't exactly count on the current occupants of the White House moving out in January 2013.

At least it wasn't by Zbigniew Brzensinski.

OMG NWO!

I hope you're right Muertos, I'm afraid of a Reagan-style backlash, like after Carter. But if he doesn't win, you need to remember to admit you were wrong, because CTs never do.

That'd be a cool idea.. put reasonable, rational predictions next to the wingnut ones... It would definitely "balance it out" so to speak.

Also, I <3 OBAMA.